The number of people receiving pension credit is set to plunge by 155,000 over five years
Tens of thousands of older people are set to miss out on energy bill support over the coming years as a steep drop in pension credit claims threatens access to vital winter fuel payments.
New figures reveal that the number of people receiving pension credit is set to fall from 1.37 million in 2025/26 to 1.21 million in 2029/30 – a drop of 155,000.
Experts say that rising pensioner incomes due to the triple lock increasing the value of the state pension between now and 2029/20 means fewer people will qualify.
Pension credit acts as a so-called passport benefit, unlocking additional support such as cold weather payments, free TV licences for over-75s, and winter fuel payments, so lower claims mean many older people are missing out on these benefits.
Pension credit tops up a claimant’s weekly income to £227.10 or a joint weekly income to £346.60 if they have a partner.
The fall in claimants comes at the same time as the pension-age population is rising, meaning the proportion of pensioners receiving this vital support is likely to shrink even faster.
As the number of pensioners grows, fewer are claiming the support, causing the proportion receiving it to decline more rapidly.
According to Government figures, the total number of pensioners on a state pension will rise from 13.1 million this year to 13.3 million in 2029/30.
Sir Steve Webb, former pensions minister and partner at LCP, told The i Paper: “The decision to restrict winter fuel payments to those on pension credit has already taken the payment away from the large majority of pensioners.
“But what may not be appreciated is that as fewer and fewer pensioners are entitled to pension credit in future, this will mean fewer pensioners retaining help with their winter fuel payments.
“The recent publicity boost for pension credit does not change the long-term downward trend in the numbers receiving the benefit.”
Tom Selby, director of public policy at AJ Bell, said it is likely that fewer pensioners would qualify for the benefit because pension incomes are rising, partly due to the triple lock on the state pension.
“In part, this could be because the triple lock is anticipated to increase the value of the state pension between now and 2029/30,” he said.
The triple lock increases the state pension each year by the highest of inflation, earnings growth, or 2.5 per cent.
The fact fewer people are expected to need pension credit could be “positive news on the face of it” as it implies that fewer people are on “very low incomes”, Mr Selby said.
“The sting in the tail is that there will be lots of people who just miss out on pension credit, who will also miss out on the winter fuel payment following Rachel Reeves’s decision to means test the benefit,” he said.
Government push for pension credit
An expected drop in recipients comes amid a Government push in recent years to increase take-up, including high-profile campaigns, a dedicated “Pension Credit Day of Action”, and letters encouraging pensioners to apply.
Recent figures from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) show that more than 250,000 new pension credit applications were submitted in the 12 months to February 2025 – a marked rise compared to previous years, suggesting the campaign to raise awareness has had some short-term impact.
However, this increase in applications has been reported to have led to delays.
Towards the end of last year, campaigners claimed some pensioners were waiting up to four months to receive a decision.
While claims can be backdated by up to three months, charities warned that the lag risked leaving many in limbo during the coldest periods of the year – especially those on the edge of eligibility who may not realise they qualify.
Sir Steve explained: “More people will get decent state pensions, so they won’t need pension credit, but some of these will literally only be a pound or two above the line.”
The Chancellor faced a fierce backlash, including from MPs in her own party, after she scrapped universal winter fuel payments in July last year, limiting the payments to those on pension credit.
The move aimed to target support at the poorest households as part of a broader package of cuts to reduce public spending. It was estimated at the time that the move would save £1.4bn a year as the Labour Government sought to plug a hole in the public finances.
With the number of claimants forecast to shrink, there are fears many vulnerable pensioners could be left without essential help in the coming winters.
Dennis Reed, director of Silver Voices, said: “The eligibility level of pension credit is so low, and the cliff edge effect of missing out on it so extreme, that it was always a fallacy to suggest it was the answer to pensioner fuel poverty.
“These stark figures should prompt the Government to think again about energy support for pensioner households before the next winter hits us.”
Former pensions minister Ros Altmann added: “The worst problem is for those slightly above the pension credit threshold who will be living without the extra thousands of pounds that pension credit entitled them to, including winter fuel payments.
“These are the poorest pensioners in the country and have been totally forgotten by the dreadful decision to remove winter fuel payments from those pensioners living on far less than pension credit recipients.”
The DWP has been contacted for comment.
