We expect 2026 will be a year of transition, not of a downturn, with opposite forces at play. Global economic growth is moderating but should be broadly resilient. Policy support and massive investment in the deployment of AI will keep the cycle turning, but high market concentration, rising public debt, structural inflation, and geopolitical frictions persist. To navigate this new regime of ‘controlled disorder’, investors will need to adopt a global perspective, diversify away from US AI mega caps, and seize the opportunities that are emerging amid the geopolitical shifts.
The Outlook makes the case for looking at equity market opportunities beyond companies at the heart of the tech race and stresses the need for diversification in a world of high valuations, with Emerging Markets and Europe offering both short- and long-term opportunities.
