A Data-Driven Analysis of Value in 2025

Previously, we looked at price movements of older versus newer one and two-bedders in District 9 (D9). When it comes to family-sized units, however, there could be some major differences. Will we see the same gains in units that are predominantly for owner-occupiers, rather than investors? And how will the older projects fare, given their often outsized layouts and higher quantum? In this piece, we’ll dive into three- and four-bedder trends in D9, and see whether their age makes a difference at this end of the market:

A quick note on newer versus older

We use 20 years or younger for newer (not new, mind you, but just newer) because most projects in Singapore last 19 to 24 years – so it’s a good middle point. It’s also generally accepted in the market (by convention and no particular authority) that the 20+ age range is when most condos are referred to as “older.” 

Let’s start with a look at three-bedder prices and how they’ve moved, in different age brackets: 

Three-bedroom units

Average $PSF

Since there were no old three-bedder transactions in 2014 and 2015, we’ll look at 2016 to 2024 instead.

We see a rather sharp difference here: older three-bedders recorded an impressive annualised growth rate of about 9.6 per cent, while newer ones saw a decline of around –1.0 per cent.

That said, the $PSF of new projects has consistently been higher than that of older ones. What’s changed is that, from 2016 to 2024, the difference in $PSF between new and old has narrowed substantially, showing that the older projects are catching up in relative value.

Let’s see how this looks if we focus on quantum instead:

Average price

The outperformance of the older three-bedders is even clearer when we go by quantum. From 2016 to 2024, older three-bedders almost doubled in average price – up about 90 per cent – while newer ones declined by around 13.5 per cent.

Back in 2016, newer three-bedders averaged $3.74 million compared to just $1.55 million for older ones, a gap of over $2.1 million. By 2024, that difference had shrunk to less than $300,000, with newer units averaging about $3.24 million and older ones at $2.95 million.

The larger layouts of the older units appear to have outweighed any age disadvantage. And on that note, here are the size differences:

Average size (based on units transacted)

Although the size differences are not as notable as with one and two-bedders, we can see that older three-bedders are larger on average.

This is the number of transactions:

Now let’s look at the specific projects transacted in 2024:

New

Old

Among the newer developments, prices ranged from about $2.14 million at Sophia Hills to over $6 million at The Orchard Residences. Projects like OUE Twin Peaks and Orchard Scotts sat in the $3.1 to $3.3 million range, while The Quayside and Suites at Orchard averaged between $2.3 and $2.8 million.

By comparison, the older projects – Townhouse Apartments (1977) and Leonie Gardens (1990) – recorded average prices of $2.45 million and $3.12 million, respectively. This is comfortably within the same range as many of the newer projects. 

Townhouse Apartments has a lower $PSF, so it made the price range through sheer size (2,368 sq ft at just $1,035 psf), while Leonie Gardens matched newer projects almost dollar-for-dollar on both $PSF and quantum.

To see if this holds up as a longer-term trend, let’s examine the performance of these projects over the past 10 years. We’ll highlight the newer developments for easier differentiation:

Because sales weren’t recorded every year, we focus on the 2019 to 2024 period, when most of the projects had data.

For three-bedders, the results are more mixed compared to the one- and two-bedder segments. Some newer projects, like Sophia Hills and The Quayside, managed steady growth of around three to four per cent. Others, such as Suites at Orchard and Orchard Scotts, slipped into negative territory. 

By contrast, both of the older projects, Townhouse Apartments and Leonie Gardens, showed positive growth during this period. While age still isn’t proving to be a big drawback, the advantage is less decisive than in smaller units: at least some newer projects still outperformed, even if others struggled.

While three and four-bedders are rarely bought for rental purposes, let’s see their rental yields just for completeness:

Results are fairly consistent across both old and new projects; but the Orchard Residences is definitely noteworthy for maintaining a rental yield above three per cent, despite a quantum that exceeds $6 million. 

Unlike the one- and two-bedder segments, three-bedders show a more level playing field. 

4-bedroom units

Average $PSF

For four-bedroom units, the results once again favour the older projects. Over the decade, older four-bedders achieved an annualised growth rate of about 2.75 per cent, while newer ones declined by around –3.26 per cent.

Newer projects still commanded higher $PSF throughout the decade, but the premium has narrowed considerably. In 2014, the gap between new and old was more than $2,000 psf; by 2024, it had fallen to just over $800 psf.

The shrinking gap suggests that older projects are catching up in relative terms. But the more important question is whether this holds up when we look at actual quantum prices:

Average price

We can see the overall prices narrowing quite significantly, in favour of older projects. Back in 2014, newer four-bedders averaged almost $8.0 million, compared to around $2.55 million for older units – a gap of about $5.45 million. By 2024, that difference had shrunk to just $2.2 million, with older projects averaging $3.46 million against $5.66 million for newer ones. Of course, this is dependent on what newer projects are launched to bring up the price premium. 

While new projects continue to transact at higher absolute prices, older four-bedders have appreciated better, rising about 35.8 per cent over the decade. In contrast, newer ones actually declined by close to 29.3 per cent.

Now let’s look at the sizes of older four-bedders compared to newer ones:

Average size (based on units transacted)

Once it comes to four-bedders, the size disparity fades – newer and older projects were mostly the same size.

These are the number of transactions we’ve had:

Now let’s look at the specific projects transacted:

New

Old

There is one problem we detect here: The Orchard Residences had a transaction that came in at an eye-watering $10.25 million – a single transaction that pulled up the overall average for the newer group. By $PSF, The Orchard Residences also dominated at $3,593, far above Orchard Scotts at $1,759.

That said, among the older developments, Horizon Towers averaged about $3.33 million across 12 units, with sizes around 2,422 sq ft. Leonie Gardens, meanwhile, averaged $4.25 million at $1,665 psf – remarkably close to Orchard Scotts despite being a 1990 project.

When you set aside ultra-luxury projects like The Orchard Residences, many transactions in the segment cluster much closer together. For example, the pricing of Orchard Scotts is broadly comparable to that of Leonie Gardens, despite the latter being more than a decade older.

To understand if this reflects a consistent trend, let’s examine the performance of these projects over the last 10 years. 

We’ll highlight the newer ones for easier differentiation.

The Orchard Residences actually slipped into negative territory at –0.6 per cent, but appreciation is bound to be tough when the initial price is already so high. 

By contrast, the older Horizon Towers posted a healthier 2.4 per cent annualised growth rate, while Leonie Gardens also showed consistent gains. As is often the case in most places – and not just D9 – trophy condos with super-high prices seldom see good gains, and returns are not the main reason for buying them (they’re mostly a homebuyer’s indulgence.) 

Although very few people would buy a four-bedder in D9 just to rent it out, we’ll look at the yields for completeness

The rental yields are bound to be lower, just on the basis of the much higher costs. But Orchard Scotts pulls off a rather impressive performance here, managing 3.59 per cent despite a high quantum of over $4.1 million.

As an aside, we want to end the four-bedder segment with a note that – in this category of housing – transactions don’t always make financial sense. Four-bedders in D9, whatever their age, tend to be luxury indulgences or status symbols; and some of the rental rates you see above may well be a C-suite executive’s housing allowance from an MNC. So we shouldn’t read too much into data alone, for this segment. 

Conclusion

Over the past decade, the performance gap between new and old condos in District 9 has shown quite a bit of difference across unit types.

For three- and four-bedders, the price gap has narrowed significantly. Older units have appreciated strongly, while newer ones have generally slipped. The narrowing gaps in both $PSF and pricing suggest buyers are increasingly comfortable with older, larger layouts when it comes to family homes.

That said, more luxury projects like The Orchard Residences remain in a class of their own, where financial returns often take a back seat to lifestyle and prestige. For most buyers, though, older three- and four-bedders appear to be the stronger value play.

As always, data and known averages can tell us the general trend – but the real story lies in comparing individual developments. This is especially true in D9, where developers have more leeway to build unique luxury projects and more one-of-a-kind units.

Follow us on Stacked Pro as we look at more districts in Singapore and identify the price gaps between newer and older condos. If you’d like to get in touch for a more in-depth consultation, you can do so here.