Written by Frank Lopez
Recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows a decline in farm employment compared to 2024, with ups and downs in the production of livestock, dairy and poultry.
The counties of Madera and Fresno recently saw unemployment rates go down, but with a decline on farm jobs.
For the Fresno Metropolitan statistical Area (MSA), the unemployment rate was 8.3% in April, down from a revised 9.0% in March.
Between Mach and April, total industry increased by 8,500 jobs to total 495,700 — a 1.7% increase. Farm employment saw a normal increase, rising by 7,200 jobs, up 16.6%
Between March 2024 an April 2025 farm employment declined by 1,800 jobs — a 3.4% decrease.
Let’s have a cow
On May 11, the U.S. instituted an import ban of live cattle from or transiting through Mexico.
According to the USDA’s Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, tighter anticipated supplies of feeder cattle will reduce U.S. beef production in 2026 — 5% year over year to 25.1 billion pounds.
Forecasts for cattle prices this year are raised from April and prices are projected to reach new highs next year.
The 2026 import forecast is expected to decline from the record forecast for 2025, while next year’s exports are forecasted to decline by more than six percent.
The 2025 forecasts for milk production have increased to 227.3 billion pounds.
Wholesale dairy products and milk prices are also revised upward, with the all-milk price forecast at $21.60 per pound—a 50 cent increase the previous forecast.
Next year, milk production is expected to grow to 227.9 billion pounds because of a larger dairy herd and slightly improved milk per cow.
Forecasts for wholesale dairy products and milk prices are forecast at lower levels in 2026 than in 2025.
Egg-xactly
Broiler production for 2025 is adjusted lower from April, but annual growth of one percent is expected in both 2025 and 2026.
Broiler egg exports for 2026 are expected to rebound but remain below pre-2022 levels.
Table egg production in 2025 is adjusted down on low layer inventories, while a strong recovery in egg production is expected in 2026.
Projected 2025 turkey production is adjusted lower, but a rebound is expected in 2026.
Turkey prices in 2025 are adjusted up on recent data, and are expected to increase in 2026.
Pig out
Pork production for next year is forecast at 28.4 billion pounds, up 1.3% from expected production in 2025.
Hog prices in 2026 are expected to average $63.50 per hundredweight, more than three percent lower than expected prices this year.
Pork exports this year are raised 103 million pounds to 7.1 billion pounds—about one percent lower than exports in 2024—due to expectations of stranger demand in important Asian markets.
