May 18, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: Australia – Anhydrous Ammonia – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.
Driven by increasing demand, the Australian anhydrous ammonia market is set to experience steady growth over the next decade. Market performance is projected to slow down but still expand, with a predicted CAGR of +0.3% in volume and +5.4% in value from 2024 to 2035.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for anhydrous ammonia in Australia, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.9M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $1.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
Australia’s Consumption of Anhydrous Ammonia
Ammonia consumption in Australia declined to 1.8M tons in 2024, reducing by -10.1% compared with 2023. In general, the total consumption indicated resilient growth from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.6% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption increased by +3.6% against 2022 indices. Ammonia consumption peaked at 2M tons in 2023, and then reduced in the following year.
The revenue of the ammonia market in Australia contracted notably to $631M in 2024, shrinking by -20.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, saw a moderate increase. Over the period under review, the market reached the maximum level at $794M in 2023, and then dropped significantly in the following year.
Production
Australia’s Production of Anhydrous Ammonia
In 2024, ammonia production in Australia totaled 2.1M tons, approximately equating the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the production volume increased by 15%. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum volume in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.
In value terms, ammonia production dropped markedly to $721M in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 44% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $968M in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Imports
Australia’s Imports of Anhydrous Ammonia
Ammonia imports into Australia dropped dramatically to 49K tons in 2024, which is down by -72.3% against the previous year’s figure. Over the period under review, imports saw a pronounced setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 64,671% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure at 177K tons in 2023, and then shrank significantly in the following year.
In value terms, ammonia imports fell sharply to $22M in 2024. Overall, imports recorded a perceptible decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 22,935%. Imports peaked at $88M in 2023, and then dropped rapidly in the following year.
Imports By Country
In 2024, Indonesia (49K tons) was the main supplier of ammonia to Australia, accounting for a approx. 99.9% share of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume from Indonesia amounted to +16.6%.
In value terms, Indonesia ($22M) constituted the largest supplier of anhydrous ammonia to Australia.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Indonesia amounted to +14.9%.
Import Prices By Country
The average ammonia import price stood at $453 per ton in 2024, dropping by -9.4% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the average import price increased by 201%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $1,117 per ton. From 2017 to 2024, the average import prices failed to regain momentum.
As there is only one major supplying country, the average price level is determined by prices for Indonesia.
From 2013 to 2024, the rate of growth in terms of prices for Malaysia amounted to -0.1% per year.
Exports
Australia’s Exports of Anhydrous Ammonia
In 2024, approx. 321K tons of anhydrous ammonia were exported from Australia; growing by 29% against the year before. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a abrupt decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 117%. The exports peaked at 695K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, ammonia exports dropped slightly to $110M in 2024. Overall, exports, however, showed a deep contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 261% against the previous year. The exports peaked at $343M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Exports By Country
Taiwan (Chinese) (87K tons), South Korea (71K tons) and Indonesia (53K tons) were the main destinations of ammonia exports from Australia, together accounting for 66% of total exports. Japan, China, Thailand and Singapore lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Japan (with a CAGR of +19.1%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest markets for ammonia exported from Australia were Taiwan (Chinese) ($31M), South Korea ($23M) and Japan ($19M), with a combined 66% share of total exports.
In terms of the main countries of destination, Japan, with a CAGR of +16.7%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Export Prices By Country
In 2024, the average ammonia export price amounted to $342 per ton, which is down by -23.9% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a noticeable decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 66% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure at $546 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.
Average prices varied noticeably for the major foreign markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the countries with the highest prices were Japan ($364 per ton) and Taiwan (Chinese) ($353 per ton), while the average price for exports to South Korea ($320 per ton) and China ($323 per ton) were amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to India (-1.3%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced a decline.
