Apr 21, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: Australia – Methanol (Methyl Alcohol) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.
The article discusses the projected growth in the methanol market in Australia, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.4% in volume and +1.9% in value from 2024 to 2035. Despite a forecasted deceleration in market performance, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for methanol (methyl alcohol) in Australia, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 649K tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $676M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
Australia’s Consumption of Methanol (Methyl Alcohol)
In 2024, the amount of methanol (methyl alcohol) consumed in Australia expanded slightly to 620K tons, increasing by 3.4% against the year before. Overall, consumption posted prominent growth. Over the period under review, consumption attained the maximum volume at 639K tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.
The size of the methanol market in Australia rose slightly to $549M in 2024, with an increase of 4.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption enjoyed strong growth. Methanol consumption peaked at $569M in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.
Production
Australia’s Production of Methanol (Methyl Alcohol)
In 2024, the amount of methanol (methyl alcohol) produced in Australia expanded slightly to 612K tons, with an increase of 2.7% on the year before. In general, production recorded a remarkable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 46%. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum volume at 627K tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, methanol production rose slightly to $544M in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, production recorded a remarkable increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the production volume increased by 43% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum level at $563M in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.
Imports
Australia’s Imports of Methanol (Methyl Alcohol)
In 2024, supplies from abroad of methanol (methyl alcohol) was finally on the rise to reach 8.6K tons after three years of decline. Overall, imports, however, showed a abrupt downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 521%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 103K tons. From 2021 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, methanol imports skyrocketed to $3.6M in 2024. In general, imports, however, recorded a abrupt downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when imports increased by 226% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $20M. From 2021 to 2024, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.
Imports By Country
The United Arab Emirates (406 tons), Singapore (377 tons) and the United States (271 tons) were the main suppliers of methanol imports to Australia, together accounting for 24% of total imports.
From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +44.0%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced mixed trend patterns.
In value terms, the United States ($314K), Germany ($251K) and Singapore ($232K) constituted the largest methanol suppliers to Australia, with a combined 40% share of total imports. India, the United Arab Emirates and China lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 8.1%.
Among the main suppliers, the United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +27.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Import Prices By Country
In 2023, the average methanol import price amounted to $458 per ton, rising by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a modest expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average import price increased by 70%. The import price peaked at $472 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, import prices failed to regain momentum.
Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($4,736 per ton), while the price for the United Arab Emirates ($159 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+8.8%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports
Australia’s Exports of Methanol (Methyl Alcohol)
Methanol exports from Australia reduced rapidly to 58 tons in 2024, dropping by -88.8% compared with the year before. Overall, exports recorded a sharp decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum at 22K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.
In value terms, methanol exports declined sharply to $187K in 2024. Over the period under review, exports showed a dramatic setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at $11M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.
Exports By Country
Timor-Leste (453 tons) was the main destination for methanol exports from Australia, accounting for a 88% share of total exports. Moreover, methanol exports to Timor-Leste exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Papua New Guinea (49 tons), ninefold.
From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Timor-Leste totaled +26.6%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Papua New Guinea (+5.1% per year) and New Zealand (-20.2% per year).
In value terms, Timor-Leste ($369K) remains the key foreign market for methanol (methyl alcohol) exports from Australia, comprising 63% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Papua New Guinea ($102K), with an 18% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value to Timor-Leste totaled +16.9%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Papua New Guinea (+2.0% per year) and New Zealand (-15.6% per year).
Export Prices By Country
The average methanol export price stood at $1,123 per ton in 2023, surging by 31% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a buoyant expansion from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +9.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, methanol export price increased by +71.0% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 an increase of 104%. The export price peaked in 2023 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.
Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was New Zealand ($3,866 per ton), while the average price for exports to Timor-Leste ($814 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to New Zealand (+5.9%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced a decline.
