The state planning unit has raised concerns that US President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade measures may lead to increased unemployment in Thailand.
Speaking at a briefing on Thailand’s social conditions in the fourth quarter of last year, Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), said unemployment in 2024 rose slightly from a year before, tallying 1% of the total workforce or 402,200 individuals, up from 0.98% or 395,200 in 2023.
The total workforce last year totalled 40.35 million, down by 0.2% from 40.44 million in 2023.
The total number of employed people was 39.8 million, a decrease of 0.3% from 39.9 million in 2023.
Mr Danucha said the implementation of US trade measures, both tariff and non-tariff, could affect exports and employment in Thailand.
In addition, Thailand faces concerns over human trafficking, as it has remained at Tier 2 in the US Trafficking in Persons report since 2022.
“The US has not yet introduced measures specifically targeting Thailand,” he said.
“Many of Thailand’s exports to the US include computers and electronics, so we must wait to see whether specific measures are imposed. The government needs to prepare appropriate responses, including negotiations with the US, to mitigate any potential impacts.”
For the fourth quarter of 2024, the total number of employed individuals was 40.1 million, a dip of 0.4% year-on-year.
This decline was primarily due to the continued contraction in agricultural employment, which fell by 3.6%.
However, non-agricultural sectors expanded by 1.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in the hotel and restaurant sector (9.4%) and the transport and warehouse sectors, driven by improving exports.
The manufacturing sector grew slightly by 0.3%, supported by food processing, garment production and electrical equipment manufacturing. However, employment in computer and electronics manufacturing, automotive manufacturing, and chemical and chemical product manufacturing continued to decline.
Mr Danucha also addressed the government’s policy to raise the daily minimum wage to 400 baht, stating that wage adjustments must align with improvements in worker skills.
Regarding household debt, the latest data from the third quarter of 2024 tallied the amount at 16.3 trillion baht, representing 89% of GDP.
However, the decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio below 90% does not necessarily indicate an improvement in household debt problems, instead reflecting a slower pace of household debt growth relative to GDP expansion, according to the NESDC. Thailand’s household debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 94.6% in 2021.
In 2023, the household debt-to-GDP ratio was 91.4%.
“If both household debt and GDP continue to grow at low rates, it could hinder the recovery of household income and weaken households’ debt repayment capacity in the future,” he said.
Data from the National Credit Bureau indicates non-performing personal loans in the third quarter amounted to 1.16 trillion baht, accounting for 8.46% of total loans, up from 8.01% in the previous quarter.
