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Good afternoon. This is Andrew McDonald.
FRIDAY’S CHEAT SHEET
— We’re approaching a bank holiday … but Keir Starmer’s not getting much relief on welfare and child poverty.
— Donald Trump is threatening Apple AND the EU with mega tariffs.
— The UAE looks set to take a minority stake in the Telegraph.
— Nick Clegg has a new book out.
**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: The UK urgently needs more social rent homes. Our new prospectus for action outlines proposals to help deliver them – including two new investment mechanisms that could unlock up to 200,000 homes over the next decade, plus wider reforms to strengthen the sector. Find out more.**
TOP OF THE NEWSLIST
AND … BREATHE: Parliament is in recess … a bank holiday is approaching … and the prime minister has spent his day talking to mayors and devolved leaders at a “Council of the Nations and Regions” which has produced little news of any note. But even as the PM and his allies aim to find some time to relax in the sun over the long weekend, his domestic problems are still rumbling away.
Starting with … two key areas where Labour MPs hungry for more No.10 U-turns are piling on the pressure — welfare and child poverty.
On welfare: The expected mega-rebellion of Labour MPs over the cuts to welfare — Playbook PM has heard estimates ranging from about 50/60 to just over a hundred — could extend to the government frontbench, the i’s Chloe Chaplain reports today. Chaplain hears of around five members of the government (in PPS roles) who would be prepared to quit if the cuts aren’t watered down.
And behind any five MPs who say they’re willing to go nuclear … there are several more, including members of the government proper, who feel very uncomfortable about the measures in private. Ministers haven’t quite ruled out making changes to the planned cuts — and the winter fuel U-turn has left rebels feeling anything is possible.
Meanwhile on child poverty … the Guardian’s pol ed Pippa Crerar hears that the publication of the government’s child poverty strategy has been pushed back to at least the autumn budget, as internal debate continues over the two-child cap on benefits. It’s widely expected the strategy could recommend scrapping the cap. And it’s that very recommendation, supported by lots of those MPs already angry about welfare cuts, which appears to be splitting up the band at the center of No. 10.
In the scrap the cap corner: Keir Starmer — according to the Guardian today, Bloomberg yesterday and Andrew Marr. All report he privately wants to get rid of, or at least keep on the table, the option of scrapping the two child limit.
In the keep the cap corner: Morgan McSweeney — according to both the Guardian and Bloomberg. And, funnily enough, the former reports that McSweeney and Chancellor Rachel Reeves are the pair who have pushed back the strategy all the way back to the autumn. Has someone left Starmer at the front of the DLR again?
Of course: No. 10 officials deny that there’s any split between McSweeney and Starmer on child poverty or anything at all, as you’d expect.
Also denying any tension this weekend … will be Deputy PM Angela Rayner — who gets the tricky wicket of a Sunday sofa broadcast round after a week of tales from the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith about her policy fights with Reeves. Riley-Smith had a fresh one this afternoon, reporting that Reeves is resisting Rayner’s push for a big spending increase on social housing.
STILL: At least Starmer can look somewhat smugly over at the EU, after Donald Trump threatened the bloc with a 50 percent tariff on goods from June for daring to be “difficult to deal with.” A full trade war between the EU and U.S. would rebound on Britain and inevitably hurt our economy too … but it’s at least another sign that it was probably worthwhile putting so much effort into charming the mercurial president after all. Our EU colleagues have all the details and reaction on Trump’s latest gambit.
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DRIVETIME DEBRIEF
SOLD: A deal has finally been reached in the long takeover process for the Telegraph — which will see U.S. investment firm RedBird Capital buy it for about £500 million. The Telegraph itself sells it as a deal which will end “end two years of gruelling uncertainty and deliver significant investment in journalism.”
But but but … the controversial bit will see RedBird IMI, majority-owned by UAE vice president and Man City owner Sheikh Mansour, take a minority stake in the newspaper as a member of the consortium. RedBird IMI had originally agreed to buy both the Telegraph and the Spectator back in 2023, before the government blocked the move after introducing new rules to stop foreign ownership of the press. Ministers announced the limit will be 15 percent for foreign state ownership of newspapers last week, so the UAE could effectively own up to a sixth of the Telegraph.
If we get to that the point: In its write-up of the deal — you’d assume they’d be well informed — the Telegraph writes that “a rival is attempting to disrupt the sale” and that “regulatory hurdles await.” The Lib Dems too are complaining that the deal involving a minority stake for the UAE has been promised before the government legislation on 15 percent has passed parliament — and are promising to block the law once it reaches the Lords. Tory peer Michael Forsyth told the Telegraph he’ll back the Libs, too.
IS THAT … GOOD LUCK? Energy costs will fall for some households in the summer after Ofgem cut its price cap this morning, by seven percent. (Usual disclaimer about the cap calculating a limit suppliers can charge customers for units of gas and electricity, rather than setting a cap for the total bill.) The cap was lowered thanks to a slump in gas market prices across Europe.
SCOOP — ALARM BELLS: The Trade Union Side, the umbrella body for trade unions in parliament, has written to the Speaker to voice concern at proposed cuts to the House of Commons revealed in Playbook earlier this week, my colleague Esther Webber writes in. In a letter they seek clarification over whether a target of 10 percent savings will apply to parliamentary security, pointing out that “the mood around politics is increasingly febrile” and “demonstrations in and around the estate can be hugely intimidating.”
BEYOND THE M25
BY-ELECTION BATTLES: Scottish Labour’s candidate for the upcoming Holyrood by-election in Hamilton is facing transparency questions on multiple fronts — amid claims Davy Russell is hiding from the press and a new Guardian story today revealing he didn’t disclose to voters his previous work for a “scandal-hit” firm. The Guardian’s Severin Carrell and Libby Brooks, plus Conrad Landin, write that Russell worked for a firm which allegedly falsified at least 13,000 maintenance records … something which is not part of the candidate’s biography as presented to Scots.
Empty chair: As for the other kind of transparency, Russell was directly called out by STV for dodging a by-election TV debate which candidates from the SNP and Reform U.K. (the only other serious contenders for the seat) will attend. “Davy Russell has told newspaper journalists that he would ‘rather be chapping doors and talking and listening to ordinary voters’ — but given that Scotland Tonight hustings is not on until 10.40 at night — if he is chapping doors, he’s likely to get chased,” STV pol ed Colin Mackay writes.
The context is … that Labour is not just worried about not winning in the highly-winnable contest — but that they might actually wind up finishing in third behind both Reform and the SNP. Which wouldn’t be the best sign for Anas Sarwar’s chances of getting into power next year.
MEANWHILE, IN TRUMP’S AMERICA: While taking a breather from using his Truth account to send shivers down EU spines … Donald Trump announced (on Truth, of course) that Apple will have to pay a steep tariff of 25 percent or more for iPhones made outside of the U.S. iPhones are largely manufactured in China, hence all the pressure.
Trump is also … being sued by Harvard, after he revoked the school’s eligibility to enroll foreign students. POLITICO write-up here.
Also a feature of Trump’s world: The Kyiv-Moscow talks last week effectively organized by Trump have borne some limited low-hanging fruit, with the two sides completing the first phase of a massive prisoner exchange. If completed over the weekend, it will be the largest since the war began. More from CNN here.
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TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND
LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: BBC News at Six leads on the fire in Nottingham.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Labour peer Michael Levy … Save the Children’s Rachael Cummings … Harvard lecturer Pippa Norris.
Drive with Cathy Newman (Times Radio, 5 p.m.): Former Apple adviser in China Doug Guthrie … Former U.N. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Stephen O’Brien … Former No. 10 adviser Theo Bertram … Former DExEU SpAd Raoul Ruparel … Sunday Times editor Ben Taylor … Vice Chair of EU International Trade Committee Karin Karlsboro … Former MPs Penny Mordaunt and Jon Ashworth.
The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): U.S. journalist Jake Tapper.
Any Questions (Radio 4, 8 p.m.): The Telegraph’s Annabel Denham … Labour MP Rachael Maskell … Tory MP Neil Shastri-Hurst … NHS Confederation chief Matthew Taylor.
Patrick Christys Tonight (GB News, 9 p.m.): Former Tory MP Jane Stevenson … Labour MP Barry Gardiner.
Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Donald Trump’s niece, Mary Trump … Academic Lawrence Newport … Bloomberg’s Ailbhe Rea … Author Patrick McGee.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Former Tory MP Julie Kirkbride and freelance journo Vincent McAviney … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): Mirror columnist Susie Boniface and ConHome’s Henry Hill.
YOUR WEEKEND IN POLITICS
OWNED, BUT PUBLICLY: South Western Railway will be renationalized Sunday, the first operator to be brought under state control under Labour’s public ownership bill. In Peak Britain, “the first nationalised train is a bus replacement service,” the BBC’s Peter Henley spotted.
SUNDAY SHOWS: Angela Rayner is out and about for the government.
WATCH FOR HOW HE SIGNS OFF: Gary Lineker’s final MOTD is on Sunday night.
WEEKEND MEDIA ROUND
Coffee House Shots (Podcast, drops on Saturday 6 a.m.): Spectator editor Michael Gove on how Labour needs to learn to love Brexit.
Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips (Sky News, 8.30 a.m. on Sunday): Deputy PM Angela Rayner … Former FT editor Lionel Barber … Labour peer Ayesha Hazarika … Tory peer Paul Goodman.
Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg (BBC One, 9 a.m. on Sunday): Angela Rayner … Tory leader Kemi Badenoch … Actress Imelda Staunton.
The Camilla Tominey Show (GB News, 9.30 a.m. on Sunday): Kemi Badenoch … Former Trump spokesperson Jason Miller.
Lewis Goodall (LBC, 10 a.m. on Sunday): Angela Rayner … Journalist Tom Mutch … Soldier Shaun Pinner.
Sunday Morning with Adam Boulton (Times Radio, 10 a.m. on Sunday): Angela Rayner … Former U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta … Shadow Leveling Up Secretary Kevin Hollinrake.
Ayesha Hazarika with Times Radio Drive (Times Radio, 4 p.m. on Sunday): Labour MP Joe Morris … Tory MP John Lamont … Lib Dem MP Jess Brown-Fuller … HuffPost’s Kevin Schofield.
**We are in an unprecedented moment in Canadian politics that will shape Canada and the course of its relationship with the U.S. and power centers across Europe for decades. POLITICO will be your guide to the issues and players driving the agenda with a fresh version of one of our signature newsletters: Canada Playbook. Sign up here to get it straight in your inbox.**
ANY OTHER BUSINESS
OUT TODAY: Former Deputy PM and ex-Facebook supremo Nick Clegg‘s book on “How to Save the Internet.”
Probably much more interesting: Journo Isabel Hardman has another book on the way, this one on why Britain fails to learn lessons from scandals. Deets here.
SPOTTED ON DRESSED-DOWN RECESS FRIDAY IN PARLIAMENT: Tom Tugendhat in some snazzy blue jeans and trainers.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: Results came in from the previous day’s referendum on the Good Friday Agreement on this day in 1998 — with voters on both sides of the Irish border resoundingly voting Yes.
WRITING SUNDAY CRUNCH: Mason Boycott-Owen.
WRITING PLAYBOOK MONDAY MORNING: Andrew McDonald.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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