The global market for the recycling of Li-ion batteries is expected to see significant growth that could reach US$52bn (£38.79bn) by 2045, says new industry analysis.
Analysis by market intelligence group IDTechEx has looked at predicted changes between 2025 and 2045 in the demand and supply of recycling functions for batteries used in a range of lower carbon systems.
Some of the drivers for expanding the value of recycled battery products will include the growing availability of retired Li-ion batteries over the next two decades.
The research also noted that feedstock would be bolstered by batteries from electric vehicles (EV) and energy storage systems (ESS) as the market grows, as well as from materials derived from sources such as scrap and waste consumer electronics.
It stated: “Li-ion battery demand continues to grow significantly, especially across EV and ESS markets. Therefore, the management of these batteries at end-of-life (EOL) will become increasingly important.”
Other important market developments were expected to include shifting policy and regulations looking to improve circularity and recycling rates, IDTechEx said in its research.
This included requirements facing battery manufacturers and the automative sector in markets such as the EU to ensure that a minimum amount of recycled content such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel are included in new EV products.
Other conclusions of the research were that recyclers, battery manufacturers and vehicle makers would be looking to see commitments to address issues around the domestic supply of critical materials for batteries, along with measures to shield the market from volatile prices. There would also be potential to profit from offering recycling of certain chemistries.
The research stated: “As the availability of retired Li-ion batteries reaching end of life grows, so will the importance of managing them through the circular economy. Recycling plays the final role in this closed-loop supply chain, and recyclers are expanding their operations, growing their recycling capacities, and developing their technologies to help key stakeholders maximise long-term critical Li-ion battery material recovery.”
IDTechEx said its research had found more than 120 major announcements over the course of 2023 and 2024 focused on expand recycling capabilities, or securing new supply agreements to support the market for Li-ion batteries.
Finance amounting to around US$3.1bn had been invested over the period with the aim of creating new commercial-scale recycling, the report stated.
UK policymakers are also facing questions about the significance of battery recycling and material supply chains in line with national ambitions to decarbonise the energy sector.
In March this year, a report commissioned by the Department for Business and Trade said state intervention was needed to improve the scalability of critical minerals recycling in the UK. This included measures to address a lack of at-scale capacity to refine black mass, which is produced from shredded batteries.
The government is meanwhile expected to publish an updated plan for critical minerals such as those needed in battery systems later this year. This will follow on from initial findings on the subject produced in 2022.
This report will look to address limited domestic supply capabilities,
The UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre has found that China’s global trade share of cobalt, nickel and manganese, which are all critical in battery productions, was 80%, 72% and 67%, respectively.
China, which also contains most of the world’s black mass refining capacity, has restricted export of some critical minerals following US tariff rises, increasing global concern about supply chains.
