“The ETI fell in April to its lowest level since October, reflecting growing economic uncertainty,” said Mitchell Barnes, economist at The Conference Board. “While labour market indicators for the private sector largely remained stable in April, consumers and businesses are beginning to anticipate the impact of tariffs and import declines that could materialise over the next month.”
The Conference Board ETI for the US fell to 107.57 in April, its lowest since October, signalling rising economic uncertainty.
Key drivers included weaker business confidence, falling job openings, and more consumers reporting jobs are hard to get.
Despite stable private sector indicators, tariff concerns and supply chain disruptions may soon impact hiring.
The share of consumers who report ‘jobs are hard to get’—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey —rose for the third consecutive month in April to 16.6 per cent, the highest share since October. The shift in consumers’ labour market outlook is part of a broader decline in confidence that saw the Consumer Expectations Index fall in April to its lowest level since October 2011. The share of small firms that report jobs are ‘not able to be filled right now’ (an ETI component) fell by 6 percentage points to 34 per cent, the lowest mark since September, The Consumer Board said in a press release.
“April’s ETI is likely the last result we see before tariff disruptions begin to hit supply chains. Ahead of that, measures of business activity and labour demand largely held firm in data through April,” said Barnes. “And we’re likely to see the continuation of tight labour supply in the US given the aging workforce and limits on immigration.”
Real manufacturing and trade sales continued to show post-election strength in the most recently released February data, showing annual growth of 3.2 per cent. The share of involuntary part-time workers declined for the second consecutive month to 17.1 per cent in April after reaching 18 per cent in February, a high since mid-2021.
Employment in the temporary-help industry grew by 3,600 in April, its first monthly gain in 2025 partially offsetting 12,900 net losses over January to March. Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose slightly over the course of April but the current level of 2,26,000 remains exactly equal to the series’ 12-month average, indicating no increasing trend. However, job openings continued to fall through March and may indicate that uncertainty is creating greater hesitation in hiring for businesses. Revisions to job openings in recent months now show a total decline of nearly 8,40,000 since November.
“While confidence in the labour market has slipped, it’s still unclear how much of a pullback in hiring or a rise in layoffs we’ll see from these anticipated tariff impacts. But it is almost certain that the labour market’s streak of resiliency will be tested in the months ahead,” Barnes added.
April’s decrease in the Employment Trends Index was driven by negative contributions from 4 of its eight components: Percentage of Firms with Jobs Not Able to Fill Right Now, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find ‘Jobs Hard to Get,’ and Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RR)
