President Donald Trump’s strong support to drill for more oil–among other factors– turned a veteran credit strategist optimistic on energy in January. He bailed on the call on Friday.
Michael Anderson, head of U.S. credit strategy at Citigroup, wrote he’s “throwing in the towel” on a call to invest more in energy within high-yield, in a note on Friday. High yield bonds are a category of debt with high risk and high returns.
The decision comes after oil prices slid to lows of $57 on Monday as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, and its allies decided to ramp up oil supply swiftly to increase their market share.
Oil prices are a much bigger problem for high yield bonds when prices are lower than a benefit when prices are high, with $60 acting as the dividing line between the two scenarios, Anderson explained. There’s “very little relative upside when prices are high, but all the downside of low oil prices,” he added.
The U-turn comes after Anderson had stayed underweight energy within the firm’s high-yield factor framework for nearly two years–from 2022 to 2024. He still has an overweight call on the communication sector.
