Emkay Global Financial’ research report on Global Health
Global Health (Medanta)’s Q4FY25 print was in line with street/our estimates. The Developing portfolio continued its healthy trajectory, as OBD grew 36% YoY (favorable base) while ARPOBs fell 7% on higher contribution of schemebased patients in both—Lucknow and Patna units. Owing to capacity constraint in mature units, the Developing portfolio is likely to contribute bulk of the growth ahead. We expect flat margins overall in FY26, as operating leverage due to ramp up in new units is offset by commissioning of the Noida unit (in Q2FY26). Lumpy bed adds (~2,000 in FY29), owing to the greenfield nature of the expansion, could pose execution-related risks; this would thereby induce volatility in both, growth and profitability, in our view.
Outlook
We expect revenue CAGR of 15% in FY25-28E, as Medanta adds ~33% of its existing bed capacity in coming 2Y. We nudge up Mar-26E TP by ~7% to Rs1,175, based on 25x Mar27E pre IndAS EV/EBITDA (in line with the sector’s) and maintain REDUCE.
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Global Health – 20052025 -emkay
