Labour’s employment rights bill could substantially increase the party’s plunging popularity with Reform and former Conservative voters, but few are aware of the changes, new data by a pollster has suggested.
Among the most popular policies is on workers’ prevention from harassment, which has an extremely high favourability rating – despite significant criticism from Nigel Farage, Reform UK politicians and the Conservatives, who have sought to portray it as a “banter ban”.
The polling suggests the government’s low favourability could increase by up to 13 points – and by even more among Tory-to-Labour switchers and former Labour voters now likely to vote Reform.
The poll of 5,000 adults, commissioned by the TUC union, found only about a quarter of voters were aware of the reforms such as banning zero-hours contracts, ending fire-and-rehire, and introducing “day one” protections from unfair dismissal. Prevention of harassment – which makes that a legal duty for employers – is the second most popular policy after the ban on fire-and-rehire.
The reforms in the bill – which will come to the House of Lords on Tuesday – are also popular with Labour voters who have moved towards the Green party or independent MPs, increasing favourability by 11 points.
Peter McLeod, who ran polling for Labour in opposition, conducted the polling with his firm Hold Sway. He said: “There’s a huge number of voters out there that still know little to nothing about this legislation. The good news for the government is that as people learn about the employment rights bill, their views toward the government get more positive.”
Those polled were shown arguments in favour of the bill – including that protections were tipping the balance back towards workers – but also arguments against the changes, such as treating business as a “cash cow” and Farage’s argument that it would “ban banter”.
“It’s important to note that this was a balanced exercise,” McLeod said. “To simulate the actual debate around the bill, we showed tough arguments against it as well as the changes that it will bring in and the arguments in favour. After that robust debate, favourability to the government goes up.
“When we isolate the views of those crucial swing voters who picked the Tories in 2019 and Labour in 2024, we find a similar positive shift in the government’s reputation. This goes for 2024 Labour voters who would now vote Reform and Green as well.”
The bill has been the subject of intensive lobbying from business groups and criticism in the national media, and linked to low growth forecasts. Critics have suggested the increased protection for workers is an additional burden for businesses who have also seen national insurance for employees increase.
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There has been a perceived reluctance from ministers, including the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, to robustly defend or promote the bill given the need to preserve relations with business, though fears that the bill would be watered down at its final reading in the Commons did not come about.
The TUC has done its own extensive promotion of the bill, including in Farage’s Clacton seat. The TUC general secretary, Paul Nowak, said: “The employment rights bill is a vote winner, and demonstrably improves the government’s standing with working people.
“Commonsense policies like banning zero-hours contracts, ending fire-and-rehire and protecting workers from harassment are all hugely popular with voters across the political spectrum, from Green to Reform. The likes of Reform are defying their supporters by voting against improvements to workers’ rights at every stage.
“Boosting awareness of the employment rights bill will help expose Nigel Farage as a phoney who is on the side of bad bosses – not working people.”
