The European poultry industry will face rising production costs and geopolitical conflict this year, but demand for chicken remains strong, according to Urner Barry by Expana’s 2025 Poultry Outlook: Trends, Forecasts & HPAI Impact report.
Price increases
Chicken prices in Europe have increased year over year and month over month, reaching a record high in March 2025 at 2.8 euros (US$2.28) per kilogram, according to Rutika Ghodekar, poultry market reporter, Expana.
“We saw record high prices in 2024 that are expected to continue in 2025 as well,” said. Ghodekar. “The main reason for the increase in prices is supply constraints within the various EU member states where the production has been reduced, and that, in quarter one, is mainly because of HPAI (highly pathogenic avian influenza) as well as Newcastle disease.”
Higher prices can also be attributed to increased consumer demand caused in part by the food service sector’s wholesale buying activity, said Ghodekar. But despite the higher cost, chicken is still one of consumers’ top protein choices due to the nutritional benefits and its lower cost compared to other proteins, with consumption expected to rise by 1% year over year in 2025.
Prices are also increasing due to high crude oil prices, Ukrainian chicken imports and rising feed costs – primarily corn, soybean and wheat – which makes up 67% of the total cost of poultry production.
European Chicken Commitment
Implementation of the EU’s animal welfare initiative – the European Chicken Commitment (ECC) – is also projected to increase prices, according to Ghodekar.
“Production costs are expected to increase by 37.5% per kilogram of live weight, which is mainly driven by increases in water consumption, feed usage, energy labor costs,” said Ghodekar, adding that “the production cycle is also expected to be prolonged, so which will be ultimately resulting in the high production cost.”
Switching to the ECC’s slower growing broiler breeds will also decrease output, contributing to higher prices.
International trade and geopolitical conflict
EU exports are expected to increase by 2% in 2025, mainly to the U.K., the Middle East and Asia, and imports are also expected to increase by 1% from countries such as Brazil and Thailand.
Geopolitical concerns that could impact production and trade include “the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which mainly impacts the feed market; tariffs on Chinese lysine, which is used in the production of feed; and the retaliation on U.S. corn, which is imported in the EU on a larger scale, because of the tariffs,” said Ghodekar.
