May 12, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: EU – Methanol (Methyl Alcohol) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.
The European Union is experiencing rising demand for methanol, with market consumption expected to continue on an upward trend. Market performance is forecasted to slow down, with a projected CAGR of +0.2% from 2024 to 2035, reaching a market volume of 7.2M tons by the end of 2035. In terms of value, the market is expected to increase with a CAGR of +0.9% over the same period, reaching a market value of $2.8B by the end of 2035.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for methanol (methyl alcohol) in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 7.2M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $2.8B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
European Union’s Consumption of Methanol (Methyl Alcohol)
In 2024, consumption of methanol (methyl alcohol) decreased by -4.4% to 7M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The volume of consumption peaked at 7.4M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.
The value of the methanol market in the European Union dropped modestly to $2.6B in 2024, declining by -2.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The level of consumption peaked at $2.9B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.
Consumption By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Germany (2M tons), the Netherlands (1.7M tons) and France (550K tons), with a combined 60% share of total consumption.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +19.6%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Germany ($755M), the Netherlands ($581M) and France ($197M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, together accounting for 60% of the total market.
The Netherlands, with a CAGR of +18.2%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the market figures.
In 2024, the highest levels of methanol per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (95 kg per person), followed by Belgium (44 kg per person), Germany (24 kg per person) and Poland (12 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of methanol was estimated at 16 kg per person.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the methanol per capita consumption in the Netherlands stood at +19.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Belgium (-1.3% per year) and Germany (+2.2% per year).
Production
European Union’s Production of Methanol (Methyl Alcohol)
In 2024, the amount of methanol (methyl alcohol) produced in the European Union dropped to 1M tons, with a decrease of -2.4% against 2023 figures. Overall, production recorded a noticeable curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the production volume increased by 89% against the previous year. The volume of production peaked at 2.6M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, methanol production reduced slightly to $505M in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a noticeable decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 86%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $958M. From 2018 to 2024, production growth remained at a lower figure.
Production By Country
The country with the largest volume of methanol production was Germany (752K tons), accounting for 73% of total volume. Moreover, methanol production in Germany exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the Netherlands (200K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Romania (26K tons), with a 2.6% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in Germany amounted to +3.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (-10.7% per year) and Romania (-12.4% per year).
Imports
European Union’s Imports of Methanol (Methyl Alcohol)
In 2024, overseas purchases of methanol (methyl alcohol) decreased by -6.9% to 8.6M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 24%. The volume of import peaked at 9.5M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, methanol imports declined slightly to $3B in 2024. In general, imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 88% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $3.7B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Imports By Country
The Netherlands represented the main importing country with an import of about 2.9M tons, which amounted to 34% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Germany (1,317K tons), Belgium (1,048K tons), Poland (608K tons), France (549K tons) and Spain (448K tons), together making up a 46% share of total imports. Italy (349K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
The Netherlands was also the fastest-growing in terms of the methanol (methyl alcohol) imports, with a CAGR of +5.7% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Poland (+4.8%) and Belgium (+2.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Germany and France experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Spain (-1.1%) and Italy (-2.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the Netherlands (+12 p.p.), Poland (+2.1 p.p.) and Belgium (+1.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2013-2024, the share of Spain (-1.7 p.p.), France (-1.9 p.p.), Italy (-2.4 p.p.) and Germany (-2.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.
In value terms, the Netherlands ($997M) constitutes the largest market for imported methanol (methyl alcohol) in the European Union, comprising 33% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($435M), with a 14% share of total imports. It was followed by Belgium, with an 11% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the Netherlands totaled +3.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (-3.8% per year) and Belgium (+0.5% per year).
Import Prices By Country
The import price in the European Union stood at $354 per ton in 2024, with an increase of 3.8% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, continues to indicate a perceptible downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the import price increased by 58%. The level of import peaked at $445 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in France ($372 per ton) and Italy ($362 per ton), while Belgium ($330 per ton) and Germany ($331 per ton) were amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (-0.9%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.
Exports
European Union’s Exports of Methanol (Methyl Alcohol)
Methanol exports fell to 2.6M tons in 2024, declining by -11.5% on 2023. Overall, exports recorded a slight decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when exports increased by 14% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 3.6M tons. From 2015 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, methanol exports declined significantly to $1.1B in 2024. Over the period under review, exports recorded a pronounced reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 51%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at $1.7B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.
Exports By Country
In 2024, the Netherlands (1.4M tons) represented the main exporter of methanol (methyl alcohol), achieving 55% of total exports. Belgium (544K tons) held the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Slovenia (218K tons) and Poland (161K tons). All these countries together held approx. 36% share of total exports. Germany (100K tons) and Romania (40K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
Exports from the Netherlands decreased at an average annual rate of -3.2% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Romania (+18.4%), Poland (+11.7%) and Belgium (+9.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Romania emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the European Union, with a CAGR of +18.4% from 2013-2024. By contrast, Slovenia (-1.9%) and Germany (-9.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Belgium (+15 p.p.), Slovenia (+8.4 p.p.) and Poland (+4.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2013-2024, the share of Germany (-5.7 p.p.) and the Netherlands (-9.3 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.
In value terms, the Netherlands ($591M) remains the largest methanol supplier in the European Union, comprising 56% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Belgium ($196M), with an 18% share of total exports. It was followed by Poland, with a 6.9% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the Netherlands amounted to -3.7%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Belgium (+6.8% per year) and Poland (+10.7% per year).
Export Prices By Country
The export price in the European Union stood at $410 per ton in 2024, dropping by -5.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 54%. The level of export peaked at $463 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.
Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($646 per ton), while Slovenia ($256 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+1.7%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.
