The survey, released on Wednesday, May 28, shows that 87% of chief economists believe current US policies are causing delays in strategic business planning and increasing the likelihood of a recession. Trade, monetary, and fiscal policy were identified as the main areas of uncertainty, with nearly all respondents citing trade as the most unpredictable factor.
Overall, 82% described current global uncertainty as “exceptionally high,” and nearly eight in 10 believe the world is undergoing a structural economic shift rather than a temporary phase of disruption. This uncertainty is expected to dampen global trade volumes, GDP growth, and foreign direct investment, according to the economists surveyed.
The report suggests that companies are reacting by pausing major decisions, raising concerns over longer-term stability. Public finances are also under pressure. With defence budgets rising, 86% of economists expect governments to borrow more to meet spending needs. Many warned that this could limit future investment in infrastructure and public services, particularly in heavily indebted economies.
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Growth expectations remain uneven. Most economists foresee weak growth in the United States through 2025, coupled with persistent inflation and a softening dollar. In Europe, there is cautious optimism, fuelled in part by anticipated fiscal easing in Germany. Views on China are split, with no clear consensus on whether its 5% growth target is achievable. South Asia remains the most promising region, with a third of respondents expecting strong or very strong growth this year.
Artificial intelligence is seen as a major growth driver over the next decade, though concerns remain over its broader economic and social effects. Nearly half of those surveyed expect AI to contribute a modest increase of up to five percentage points to global GDP, mainly through automation, faster innovation, and worker augmentation. However, 47% expect overall job losses, while disinformation and social instability are viewed as key risks.
To address these challenges, the economists surveyed called for coordinated action. For governments, this includes investments in AI infrastructure, sector-wide adoption, and upskilling programmes. For businesses, priorities include integrating AI into core operations and reskilling their workforce.
The report is based on consultations and surveys conducted in April 2025, and forms part of WEF’s broader efforts to examine the future of global economic growth.
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(Edited by : Shoma Bhattacharjee)
