Gold rallies on trade policy uncertainty while markets await U.S.-China negotiations

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Gold prices staged an impressive recovery this week, nearly erasing last week’s losses as investors sought safe-haven assets ahead of critical trade negotiations between the United States and China scheduled for this weekend in Switzerland.

June 2025 gold futures closed at $3,329.10 on Friday, posting a weekly gain of $87.70 or 2.52%. The precious metal finished Friday’s session with a modest increase of $18.70 (0.56%), partially supported by dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.23% to 100.255, interrupting three consecutive weeks of gains since falling to 97.68 in late April.

The weekly advance of $87.70 slightly exceeded last week’s decline of $82.80 (2.49%), with June gold touching an intraweek high of $3,448.20—well above last week’s peak of $3,363.80. While impressive, this week’s performance still falls short of the all-time high of $3,509.90 recorded during the week of April 21, which saw exceptional trading volume of 152 million contracts.

Record-Setting Price Action

This week featured several notable milestones, including Wednesday’s opening price of $3,448.10, the highest opening price ever recorded for gold futures. This record followed extraordinary gains on Monday and Tuesday, with the precious metal surging nearly $200 across both sessions ($96.10 on Monday followed by $98.30 on Tuesday).

At Friday’s close, gold settled at its second-highest weekly closing level in history, surpassed only by the $3,341.40 close recorded during the week of April 14.

Economic Uncertainty Drives Safe-Haven Appeal

The primary catalyst for gold’s strong performance remains economic uncertainty stemming from the administration’s implementation of import tariffs on foreign goods. However, market sentiment improved following a successful trade agreement between the United States and United Kingdom, fostering optimism about this weekend’s upcoming U.S.-China negotiations.

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“There’s strong optimism across the market of progress in U.S.-China trade talks in particular and more broadly more trade deals,” noted Matthew Weller, head of market research at StoneX. “It does seem like the Trump administration is perhaps extending a series of olive branches to different countries, and perhaps the worst of the trade wars and tariffs is behind us. That’s what the market is starting to price in.”

Divergent Central Bank Decisions

Global monetary policy decisions provided an additional backdrop to gold’s movements this week. While the Federal Reserve and the central banks of Sweden and Norway maintained their current interest rates, the Bank of England implemented a rate cut. The Fed’s decision aligned with market expectations, allowing traders to maintain focus on trade developments.

Gold’s robust performance this week reinforces the market’s bullish sentiment toward the precious metal. Investors continue to value gold’s safe-haven properties amid the uncertain trade environment, even as recent diplomatic progress has inspired cautious optimism.

As markets await the outcome of this weekend’s high-stakes negotiations in Switzerland, gold’s price action will likely remain sensitive to trade headlines and shifts in risk appetite. The precious metal continues to demonstrate its strategic importance in diversified portfolios during periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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