Institutional interest in bullion remains subdued as traders reassess the likelihood of near-term Fed action. Retail sales and PPI data showed enough resilience to keep growth concerns at bay, while sticky inflation expectations may force policymakers to stay cautious. Without a decisive dovish pivot or renewed geopolitical stress, gold is likely to remain under pressure.
Unless upcoming Fed commentary pushes back clearly against rising real rates or reaffirms a near-term policy shift, capital rotation toward risk assets and away from gold will likely persist. With safe-haven demand cooling and inflation uncertainty elevated, gold faces continued headwinds in the short term.
Technically, XAU/USD is still in an uptrend, but momentum has shifted to the downside.
A sustained move under the pivot at $3166.46 is likely to extend the selling pressure this week towards the next major pivot at $3018.52.
Traders are expected to continue to buy the dips into support, but unlike previous similar moves, they are being met by traders selling the rallies.
The major support is the swing bottom at $2956.56. If this price fails then look out to the downside with the 52-week moving average at $2707.24 the next like target.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
