April’s edition of the Nationwide house price index will be released next Wednesday, as the shakeout from the end of the stamp duty holiday continues.
March’s data – which, given the index measures mortgage approvals, not completions, incorporated transactions likely to incur higher stamp duty costs – saw the index fail to rise for the first time in seven months. Pantheon Macroeconomics thinks the flat growth figure, while below consensus expectations of a 0.2 per cent rise, was “impressive” given the context. But the outlook remains uncertain: this month’s Rics survey of estate agent sentiment saw the balance of new buyer enquiries fall to an 18-month low of -32.
The Bank of England is now forecast to cut base rates of interest next month, and twice more by the year-end. This won’t necessarily be a boon: the increased pace of loosening would probably reflect economic uncertainty stemming from the US tariff rollout.
