Global oil demand is now projected to grow marginally more than previously expected in 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Thursday, citing easing trade tensions and a decline in crude prices as key factors supporting consumption.The Paris-based energy watchdog revised its oil demand growth forecast to 740,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the year, up from 730,000 bpd projected in its April report. This adjustment comes amid signs that the global economic impact of the recent US tariff measures may be less severe than initially feared, as reported news agency AFP.US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement in April — which imposed a 10% import levy on goods from nearly every nation — had triggered volatility in global financial markets and raised concerns of an economic slowdown. However, the subsequent decision to pause additional tariffs on key trading partners has slightly improved the outlook for global trade and energy demand.The IEA noted that “subsequent pauses, concessions, exemptions and negotiations are likely to attenuate the levies’ permanence and economic impact.”It added that the overall macroeconomic backdrop remains uncertain. “Still, policy uncertainty is high, weighing on consumer and business sentiment,” the agency said in its Monthly Oil Market Report.The IEA said global oil demand reached 990,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2025, but growth is expected to moderate to 650,000 bpd for the remainder of the year. This slowdown reflects ongoing “economic headwinds” and the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles, which are beginning to make a measurable impact on oil consumption patterns.Oil prices fell significantly last month, influenced both by Trump’s tariff measures and a surprise production increase by OPEC+ nations. The IEA noted that these lower prices are likely to stimulate short-term consumption, helping to offset some of the expected demand drag later in the year.In total, the IEA forecasts global oil demand will reach 103.9 million bpd in 2025.
