India is the only major economy to show consistent growth in steel production between 2019 and 2024, according to a report by Jefferies. While global output dipped by one percent, India’s steel output jumped 33 per cent from 2019 to 2024. The report highlights India as a “bright spot” in the commodities market. Unlike many other nations that have seen stagnation or decline, India has shown consistent volume growth across key materials, including carbon steel, stainless steel, coal, and aluminium. Over the past 15 years, consumption of carbon and stainless steel in India has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7–8 per cent. This is significantly higher than India’s real GDP growth in the same period, suggesting strong demand across sectors like infrastructure, power, and manufacturing. Jefferies forecasts that Indian steel companies will continue to grow, with an expected volume CAGR of 8–10 per cent between FY25 and FY27. Power demand is also expected to support coal volume growth at around 5 per cent CAGR. In addition, Aluminium demand in India saw a 7 per cent CAGR from 2017 to 2024, and similar trends are likely to continue. The domestic steel industry did face pricing pressure in late 2024 due to cheaper Chinese steel and rising imports. In response, the Indian government imposed a 12 per cent safeguard duty on flat steel imports in April 2025, valid for 200 days. Since then, prices have bounced back, climbing 14 per cent so far this year. Steel prices are expected to average Rs 52,000–53,000 per tonne in FY26 and FY27, slightly below current levels. Despite recent challenges, India’s steel sector appears well-positioned for sustained growth.
