Markets in Türkiye this month are expected to focus on a flurry of data, but particularly on the central bank’s interest rate decision and the Economy Coordination Board meeting, which is expected to take place in eastern Erzurum province, according to a report Saturday.
According to information compiled by Anadolu Agency (AA), the busy schedule of the economic administration will continue into June, with markets also awaiting the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), due on June 19.
The month is expected to begin with fresh trade data for last month, due to be shared with the public on Monday and inflation data, which will be published a day later.
Trade Minister Ömer Bolat is expected to announce foreign trade data for May at a meeting to be held in Ankara on June 2.
Bolat had previously stated that in April, goods exports rose by 8.5% compared to the same month last year, reaching $20.9 billion. He also said that annualized goods exports over the past 12 months have reached $265 billion, which marked the highest level in the history of the republic.
On the same day, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will release data on household consumption expenditures for 2024. In 2023, the largest share of household spending was on housing and rent at 23.9%, followed by transportation at 21.9%, and food and nonalcoholic beverages at 20.6%.
Moreover, TurkStat will announce the inflation data for May on June 3. According to AA Finance’s inflation expectation survey, economists estimate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.10% in May. This is close to forecasts of economists in a Reuters poll, which sees the monthly inflation rate likely to be between 2% and 3% in May.
In April, CPI rose by 3% month-over-month, while producer prices advanced by 2.76%, according to the official data. Annual inflation, on the other hand, slowed down to 37.86% in April, extending an easing that began in the middle of last year.
Later, on June 10, the statistical authority will release the rates of real profits of financial investment instruments for June. The bulletin will also provide an outline for investments, covering data from the first half of the year.
TurkStat will then publish industrial production data for April on June 12. In March, the industrial production index rose by 3.4% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year.
On June 19, the housing sales statistics for May will also be announced. In April, nationwide housing sales rose by 56.6% year-over-year to reach 118,359 units.
By the end of the month, on June 27, TurkStat will release the Economic Confidence Index for June and 2024 industrial product statistics.
On the last business day of June, May’s foreign trade statistics, services producer price index, and labor force statistics will be made public. In April, the unemployment rate rose by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month to 8.6%, while youth unemployment increased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.7%.
Interest rate in spotlight
The central bank’s meeting will take place on June 19, with markets closely watching the outcome of the interest rate decision as the monetary authority reversed its easing cycle in April.
At its last meeting, the committee raised the policy rate (the one-week repo auction rate) by 350 basis points to 46%.
Following the meeting on April 17, the bank stated the policy rate “will be determined in a way to ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path, taking into account realized and expected inflation, and the underlying trend.”
Last month, the central bank kept its year-end forecasts steady in its quarterly inflation report, projecting inflation to drop to 24%. The bank, however, warned of certain risks, including those stemming from food prices, citing recent frost in the country.
Some economists said a rise in fruit prices due to agricultural frost and a new season in clothing will be the main drivers of May inflation, as well as automotive prices.
Last month, the country’s statistics institute also predicted that fruit production would fall by around 25% this year due to frost.
EKK meeting
While Economy Coordination Board (EKK) meetings are held in different cities across Türkiye, regional development plans introduced concurrently with these meetings aim to activate the potential of those regions.
Accordingly, the EKK is expected to convene in Erzurum in June, chaired by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz.
Previous meetings held in Şanlıurfa, Konya and Giresun provided updates on the Southeast Anatolia Project (GAP), Konya Plain Project (KOP) and Eastern Black Sea Project (DOKAP), respectively. In Erzurum, a similar briefing is expected regarding the Eastern Anatolia Project (DAP).
