March Labour Force: partial job rebound raises questions

15:15 April 17 2025

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Employment: +32.2k (from –57.5k). Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (from 4.0%). Participation Rate: 66.8% (from 66.7%).

The March Labour Force Survey (LFS) was somewhat of a mixed bag. The bounce-back in participation was not as large as anticipated, and while the gain in employment was still solid in this context, it fell short of expectations. Measures of labour market slack held steady, suggesting the balance between labour demand and supply was broadly unchanged.

Recall that in February, the data surprised materially to the downside with a massive decline in the size of the labour force (–71k), seeing the participation rate fall from 67.2% to 66.7%. It is worth emphasising that this marked the largest monthly decline in the labour force outside of the pandemic and the early 1990s recession. As outlined in our preview, there was no strong evidence to corroborate such a significant move in the month alone, suggesting this likely another bout of ‘noise’ that would be followed up be a rebound in March.

However, today’s data confirmed that this was not entirely the case. The participation rate was virtually unchanged in March, lifting by only 0.01ppt which just happened to be enough to see the measure round up from a borderline reading of 66.7% to 66.8%. This implies the labour force grew roughly at the same rate as the population, the +36k increase only representing a partial recovery from February. 

There is always some degree of volatility on a monthly basis in the survey, meaning it is more important to assess how these results ultimately wash out to a broader multi-month trend. Taking the last couple of months together, there looks to be some signs that a cyclical downtrend in the participation rate may be forming. Indeed, it is possible that with cost-of-living pressures having eased somewhat, some of the ‘sidelined’ individuals that were initially drawn into the labour market to buffer against these pressures might be starting to leave. Other potential factors, such as changes to visa arrangements and workplace eligibility, could also drive a more sustained shift in supply, though there is little evidence of this such far.

The level of employment rose by +32k (0.2%) – a solid gain in isolation, but coming off a much larger decline the prior month (–57k), the result ended up being below consensus (+40k) and Westpac’s forecast (+50k). This rounds out a virtually flat result for employment growth over the March quarter, up by just +6.7k over the past three months. Despite the large swings in the labour force of the last couple of months, changes in employment look to be broadly moving in tandem.  

The net effect is that the unemployment rate was little changed in March, which like the participation rate, rose only 0.01ppt to barely round up from 4.0% to 4.1% (or 4.0501%!). Additionally, the underemployment rate – which measures the proportion of those wishing to work more hours – continues to track a trend decline that has been in place since May 2024. 

The March survey was also in the field during Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred. As expected, the impact looks to have been modest and largely concentrated in hours worked, which fell by –0.3% overall, but with losses only observed in NSW (–1.3%) and Qld (–3.8%), the states that were directly impacted. This should unwind in due course. 

Overall, the RBA is likely to see this data as broadly in line with its expectations. Despite some large month-to-month swings, the existing balance between labour demand and supply – which the RBA is likely to still view as ‘tight’ – has remained remarkably steady, as evinced by the lack of change in measures of labour market slack. The Monetary Policy Board will benefit from another read on labour market conditions before meeting on May 19-20, but ultimately the Q1 CPI data (due April 30) will be the most critical piece of domestic information in shaping the policy decision, which Westpac anticipates will be a 25bp rate cut in the cash rate to 3.85%.

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