Labour forecast to miss its housebuilding target – and even build fewer than in past five years
By Joely Santa Cruz, data journalist
Today’s report from the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that the number of homes in the United Kingdom could increase by 1.26 million over five years.
Labour hopes to achieve 1.5 million additional homes in England alone over the period, so a total equating to 240,000 (16%) below England’s target for the whole of the UK falls significantly short of this.
It is also fewer homes than the number built in recent comparable periods.
This decrease is largely driven by a projected fall in completions by the public sector, calling into question whether the government can achieve its goal of delivering a generational increase in social and affordable housing.
Compared to the five preceding years, the number of homes completed by private companies is forecast to increase by 10% to 836,000, while other net additions are expected to fall by 20% to 426,000. This is equivalent to 66% of forecasted new homes built by private companies.
Rachael Williamson, the Chartered Institute for Housing’s interim director of policy, communications and public affairs, said the report showed the government would struggle to meet its building targets without “significant investment in social and affordable homes” to bridge the shortfall.
Reforms to planning are expected to contribute an additional 170,000 to the total increase in housing over the period. These reforms are focused on requirements for local authorities to release land for development unless the adverse impacts significantly outweigh benefits.
Most of the housebuilding increase is projected to take place towards the end of this parliament as housebuilders adjust to the new regulations and interest rates fall.
However, significant workforce shortages will need to be overcome if this acceleration is to take place, with around 240,000 recruits needed across the sector by 2027.
The chancellor today announced a £625m million boost to the construction workforce.
