The $4.317 level stands out as a critical short-term pivot. A clear break and hold above it would likely embolden bulls to target resistance at $4.713 and potentially $4.901—levels not seen in months. However, failure to break through $4.713 would signal a possible exhaustion of the recent rally and the reemergence of sellers.
Still, any pullback from resistance may be met with buying interest. Support lies at the 50-day moving average of $3.821, with last week’s low of $3.732 acting as a crucial threshold.
A drop below $3.732 would expose the market to downside risk, with a potential slide toward $3.350. In essence, the market remains bullish above $3.924 and especially $4.317, while a sustained move below $3.821 could usher in a bearish phase.
Will Colder Weather Trends Offer Additional Tailwind?
Weather forecasts are providing further tailwinds for bulls. NatGasWeather reports that the latest weekend data trended colder, with a notable cold shot expected to move into the Midwest and Northeast from April 7–9, adding a significant number of heating degree days (HDDs). This colder shift supported the gap-up open and may provide added momentum if short-term demand spikes.
That said, national demand remains moderate to low in the current week, with milder conditions dominating the southern and eastern U.S. through April 6. Still, short-term weather risk appears skewed to the upside as traders eye the early April cold spell.
