Improving weather has again weighed on markets as we move into May.
The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows UK feed wheat futures (May-25) slipping to £161.65/t. The Nov-25 contract also lost over the week to £183.00/t.
Chicago, Kansas and Paris all set new contract lows following the latest USDA report showing an improvement in US winter wheat conditions. 49% was now in good or excellent condition. This is up from 45% the previous week and also above trade expectations of 47% according to a poll by Reuters.
Strong spring planting progress has also added pressure. As of 27 April, planting of spring wheat, maize and soyabeans was ahead of the norm.
US farmers plan to increase their maize areas by 5% in 2025 to the highest level in 12 years. This increase is a key part of why the International Grains Council is forecasting a global grain surplus, albeit small, in 2025/26.
Improving weather elsewhere has also brought pressure. Crop conditions across Europe and the Black Sea region are more favourable after recent rainfall in some areas.
The continuing slide in grain prices isn’t all down to the weather. Currency movements have impacted export competitiveness.
Rapeseed followed suit. Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures stand at €466.75/t, down considerably over the week. Again, improving weather and crop conditions were a factor, LSEG revising its EU-27+UK rapeseed production estimate for 2025 from 1.8% to 20.2 Mt.
