The US is likely in the midst of its biggest capex cycle in decades, dwarfing the telecom boom of the 1990s. AI spending is spilling over to the other parts of the economy as construction workers build data centres and the power industry bolts down turbines and transformers. Meanwhile, AI-linked stocks have propelled the US stock market to record highs, creating wealth effects for US consumers that are helping the economy weather trade uncertainty, sluggish job gains and a stagnant housing market.
That reliance makes the US economy vulnerable if the AI boom falters. A market downturn would erase the wealth effect propping up consumers, while collapsing AI capex would drag down activity in many industries. Our Research team do not anticipate this outcome, however. They see increasing examples of AI adoption across service sectors and record-breaking profits by the largest tech firms as evidence that the trend has legs and will continue to power US growth in 2026. AI is not a passing fad, but a transformative technology poised to reshape the world economy in the years to come.
Our Research analysts expect the global economy to grow 3% in 2026, which would be slightly lower than this year’s 3.3%. In their view, the expansion still has another year to run.
