The Dutch parliament voted against the legal amendment that would potentially delay the pension reforms by years. This was also our base case, but the vote turned out to be surprisingly close, with 72 against and 73 votes for.
With this hurdle behind us, we believe a material amount of assets can still transition on 1 January 2026. Having said that, more and more funds are delaying their transition date and are aiming for 2027 instead. Another amendment to extend the deadline to 2028 did pass on Tuesday, giving pension funds more leeway if needed. It still has to pass the Senate.
The market impact on the euro swap curve was an accelerated 10s30s steepening as the remaining uncertainty around the transition has been removed – the curve steepened by more than 3bp starting with the first indications that the amendment would not pass, as some smaller parties flagged their voting intentions going into the vote. At close to 5bp, it is now more clearly in positive territory and at its steepest since early 2022.
