The Russian coal industry, already reeling from an embargo on fuel supplies to EU countries and a slump in global prices, is not expected to recover within the next five years. By 2030, sea exports of coal from Russia, which makeup over 80% of total exports, are predicted to drop by 10% compared to 2024 levels, totalling 150 million tonnes. This follows a 7.5% year-on-year decrease in sea exports in 2024, with overall exports down by 9%.
These figures come from a review of the coal industry’s prospects conducted by Neft Research, as reported by Vedomosti. Analysts suggest that this decline in exports will be driven by falling global coal prices, which are expected to drop by 5-20% compared to last year due to slowing demand growth in Asia. Coal shipments through Far East ports are projected to increase by 27% to 118.7 million tonnes by 2030, while western shipments will see a 40% reduction.
Baltic Sea and Murmansk Region ports will operate at less than 35% capacity, with shipments via Baltic and Arctic ports plummeting fourfold to 11 million and 2.9 million tonnes per year respectively.
However, exports through southern ports are anticipated to remain steady at 17.8 million tonnes, thanks to the close proximity of Indian and Turkish markets.
The profitability of coal companies is set to be impacted, with only coking coal exporters expected to remain profitable. The profits from thermal coal and anthracite supplies, which are in demand in the Chinese market, are predicted to stay negative.
This could potentially lead to coal mining companies that mine mass grades of coal using underground mining exiting the market, according to Neft Research.
Energy expert Kirill Rodionov suggested that coal supplies from Russia will gradually decrease due to low profitability and an increase in coal production in China, which is the largest buyer of Russian fuel.
However, he noted that exports of coking coal are likely to rise, primarily due to the development of the Elginskoye deposit in Yakutia.
Russia‘s energy strategy until 2050, approved in April this year, projects that coal exports in 2030 should reach between 243.5–266.7 million tons, with production figures estimated at 491.6–530.1 million tons.
In contrast, coal exports from Russia decreased by 8% to 195.9 million tons in 2024, while production saw a slight drop of 0.2% to 443.4 million tons, as reported by the Ministry of Energy.
The Russian government has initiated an anti-crisis programme to address the struggling coal industry, which reported a substantial loss of 112.6 billion rubles by the end of 2024.
