A more multipolar system of trade and capital could emerge from the current disruptions caused by tariffs, Citi CEO Jane Fraser wrote in a Friday (May 16) blog post.
Tariffs have disrupted trust, supply lines and planning cycles, and their impact will take time to settle even if the tariffs are eased, according to the post.
“We are entering a new phase of globalization — one less defined by cooperation, and more by strategic self-interest,” Fraser wrote. “Long-held assumptions are being challenged, not just by tariff announcements but by a deeper confidence shock.”
This shift requires businesses to focus on resilience, risk and “rewiring global strategies for a more dynamic world,” Fraser wrote.
Amid the current uncertainty, companies are pausing decisions, delaying capital expenditures, holding off on hiring, and preparing for changes among their customers and suppliers, according to the post.
To avoid tariffs, some companies are shifting production to the U.S. or lower-tariff markets, using their existing dual-sourcing capabilities or accelerating their purchases, per the post.
“If current headwinds persist, global growth could slow by as much as a point,” Fraser wrote. “U.S. inflation could stay stubbornly above the Fed’s target, complicating policy decisions. This is also an opportunity — for countries to invest in infrastructure, education, energy security; to reform, diversify and prepare for a different kind of growth.”
Fraser said May 5 that President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda was playing out in three “phases,” with the first being the pull forward of some spending from consumers and corporates, the second being uncertainty regarding decisions on investments and hiring, and the third being finalized tariffs and clarity about their impact on consumer demand.
“I think you’ve got to recognize that this is going to play out slow, and we’ve got to keep a perspective and be very mindful about what the longer term looks like amidst all the announcements,” Fraser said at the time.
When first quarter earnings were announced in April, Citi was among the large financial institutions that emphasized there was continuing demand from retail customers, underscored by robust credit– and debit-card activity, amid tariff discussions and global economic jitters.
