After strong job growth in March and April, hiring slowed in May, in line with weakening demand for freight services due to the effects of trade-related volatility.
Latest data from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics showed that the truck transportation jobs showed a decline of 900 jobs in May. However, trucking employment remains up both year-to-date and compared to the same time last year.
It is also the first month since April 2023 to show year-over-year growth.
Revised data for March and April added 900 more jobs than previously reported. The updated figures for earlier months suggested that the trucking industry performed better than initially reported.
The unemployment rate in the U.S. transportation sector in May was 4.4%, a drop from 5.5% in May 2024, and slightly above pre-pandemic May 2019 level of 4.3%.
The overall U.S. unemployment rate was 4.0% in May.
Why trucking jobs are volatile
Volatility in employment likely stems from trade war disruptions, said David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics.
“As we have seen with import orders, large tariffs led to big cuts, which were followed by a recovery once tariffs were reduced to more manageable levels,” Spencer said.
Spencer noted that sustained high tariff environment will impact transportation demand through import levels and weigh on the consumer, further reducing demand. Conversely, any tariff relief would likely to help stabilize both demand and employment.
Spencer emphasized that the uncertainty around trade policy may encourage carriers to retain experienced drivers. “Challenges with hiring drivers during COVID is still fresh in their minds,” he said.
Consumer spending and freight demand
“Signs of the drag from tariffs are beginning to surface,” said Tuan Nguyen, economist at RSM, adding that tariffs continue to weigh on economic activity, dampening both business investment and consumer purchases, a discouraging short-term sign for the sector.
Nguyen noted that if the anticipated consumer spending slowdown materializes over the next few months, trucking employment may decline further. Currently, there are few tailwinds from either the government or the Federal Reserve to support the broader economy in a way that would directly benefit trucking, which remains tightly linked on consumption trends.
Until there’s greater clarity on trade policy and progress in negotiations, Nguyen said businesses are likely to remain cautious about expanding workforce.
Consumer Price Index’s May data was lower than market expectations, as consumer prices rose 0.1% month-over-month, with a 2.4% year-over-year increase.
Research indicates that inflation expectations influence the labor market. A study by University of Notre Dame assistant professor Jane Ryngaert and Duke University assistant professor of economics Laura Pilossoph noted, “Workers report that they are more likely to both search and to request a raise under 10% inflation than under 2% inflation.”
The paper indicated that currently employed workers with higher inflation expectations are shown to engage in on-the-job search, have lower reservation wages (which is the minimum wage rate a worker would be willing to accept), and are more likely to make job-to-job transitions.
Workforce priorities
As companies aim to stabilize workforce in a volatile labor market, Lean Solutions Group CEO Jack Freker noted a trend from Gartner’s latest Logistics Talent Monitor report that the same factors attracting talent (competitive and better work-life balance) are becoming reasons for employee exits.
Freker pointed out that the pandemic reshaped employee priorities. “Purpose, personalization, and sustainable well-being have all moved to center stage for employee satisfaction,” said Freker.
Logistics leaders need to prioritize transparency and ensuring alignment across all functions, he added.
Pamella De Leon is a senior editor of Commercial Carrier Journal. An avid reader and travel enthusiast, she likes hiking, running, and is always on the look out for a good cup of chai. Reach her at [email protected].
