Investors search for a way forward
Global markets have gone from “yippy” to feeling calmer, with stocks in Asia and Europe mostly higher this morning and the dollar showing signs of life.
But business leaders and consumers are still bracing for more aftershocks from President Trump’s trade war, while many investors sour on the United States. (Just in: Beijing has escalated its clash with Washington, ordering Chinese airlines to halt new Boeing jet deliveries.)
The Trump administration’s latest response: refocus the message.
Where things stand: Trump’s give-and-take tariffs strategy was on full display on Monday with the president signaling he would consider an exemption for auto parts — “they need a little bit of time” to bring back manufacturing to the United States — but reiterating that levies on chips and pharmaceuticals were coming.
Auto stocks rallied on the news. But Nvidia, the chips giant that became the latest tech giant to promise a major domestic spending initiative, was down in premarket trading on Tuesday.
Trump’s on-again-off-again policy has pushed some traders to the brink. Global investors have dumped their U.S. stocks at a record clip during the past two months, a Bank of America investor survey released this morning shows. They also fear tariffs sinking the global economy.
Fed officials and C.E.O.s increasingly share those downturn concerns:
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David Solomon of Goldman Sachs never mentioned “tariffs” on his bank’s earnings call on Monday, but he did warn that recession odds have increased. On the bright side: Market volatility fueled huge gains on Wall Street trading desks, including Goldman’s.
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LVMH warned that even its well-heeled customers were pulling back on purchases. Its shares fell sharply on Tuesday — along with much of the sector — as the luxury goods giant warned that trade war uncertainty may force it to raise prices.
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Raphael Bostic, the president of the Atlanta Fed, said that companies faced a “fog” of uncertainty over shifting tariffs policy, putting the economy “in a big pause position.” His take: The Fed will have to go slow on cutting interest rates.
What Trump officials are saying: Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, played down recession fears. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there was “no evidence” that foreign countries were dumping Treasury notes and bonds.
