Yale’s Budget Lab offers some estimates:
The April 2nd tariffs alone constitute an increase in the average effective tariff rate of 11 ½ percentage points. That implies a rise in consumer prices of roughly 1.3% in the short-run, assuming no policy reaction from the Federal Reserve. This is equivalent to a loss of purchasing power of $2,100 per household on average in 2024 dollars. …
The April 2nd tariffs in tandem with the China, Canada, Mexico, automobile, and steel & aluminum tariffs already in effect (and the announced retaliation from other countries) imply an increase in the average effective tariff rate of just under 20 percentage points. That raises consumer prices by 2.3% all told in the short-run, assuming no policy reaction from the Federal Reserve, a loss of purchasing power of $3,800 per household on average in 2024 dollars.
And they also estimated how the new tariffs would affect various commodity prices:
Both the April 2nd tariffs themselves and all 2025 actions to date have disproportionately affected clothing and textiles. Apparel prices rise 8% from the April 2nd action alone and 17% from all US tariffs.
Food prices are also disproportionately affected, rising 1.6% from the April 2nd policy (roughly equivalent to the last year’s worth of grocery inflation in CPI) and 2.8% from all 2025 tariff actions. Fresh produce rises 2.2% and 4.0%, respectively.
Motor vehicle prices are largely untouched by the April 2nd announcement but rise by 8.4% under all tariff action to date, the equivalent of an additional $4,000 to the price of an average 2024 new car.8
