- Prior was -155.5 billion
- Exports +7 billion
- Imports -0.6 billion
The chart is some important context here as this is a small bounce following a huge decline. When you look back to last February when the deficit was $92 billion, exports were at $174B (compared to $178B now) but imports were at $266B (compared to $326B now.
So the whole story here is surging imports and there has been a jump in ‘industrial supplies’ and ‘consumer goods’. I believe the ‘industrial supplies’ line includes gold, which isn’t included in GDP. That should mitigate some of the decline here but it’s all setting up for a poor Q1 GDP report.
Watch out for the update to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model which will be out around 11 am ET tomorrow.
