The Initial Jobless Claims (week ending May 24, 2025) rose to 240,000, up from 227,000 the previous week, exceeding estimates of 230,000. This suggests a slight uptick in layoffs and a chink in the employment armour.
Continuing Jobless Claims (week ending May 17, 2025) also moved higher: to 1.919 million, up from 1.903 million, above estimates of 1.893 million, indicating more people are remaining on unemployment benefits. Again, a weakness in jobs.
The data points to a cooling labor market, with claims trending higher, potentially reflecting economic uncertainty tied to factors like tariffs and policy changes.
US GDP consumption also fell from 1.8% to 1.2%. The combination of the data suggests that the Fed may have room to cut earlier than expected.
US yields are now lower after trading higher earlier today.
- The 2-year is at 3.967%, down -2.5 basis points.
- The 10-year yield is trading at 4.457%, down -2.2 basis points.
- The 30-year yield is down two basis points at 4.958%
The EURUSD has surged above both the 200-hour and the 100-hour MAs at 1.13136 and 1.13387. The high price has just reached 1.13592. The swing ayes from May 21 at 1.1362 is a modest target. Above that, highs from May 2, May 6, and May 7, come in near 1.13803.
The USDJPY has moved below its 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 144.897. That is now close risk. The cluster of MAs below starting with the 200-hour MA at 143.95 and down the 100 hour MA at 143.785 are the next targets.
USDJPY technicals
The GBPUSD is moving further away from the 200-hour MA at 1.34585 (the price based at the level after breaking above and correcting back to the area. The next major target comes against the 100-hour moving average at 1.3515.
GBPUSD technicals
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