The comments from the Visa conference call regarding the consumer and the global macroeconomy were really something. They highlight that consumers are employed and that, as long as they remain that way, they’re going to keep on spending.
Some direct quotes from executives on the call:
- “In Q2 and through April 21, we have not seen any signs of overall consumer spending weakening.”
- “While spending growth differs among consumer spend bands, with the most affluent growing the fastest, all spend bands remain resilient and consistent with past quarters.”
- “Both discretionary and nondiscretionary spend remains strong.”
- Consumer spending shows resilience “in an uncertain and dynamic environment.”
Internationally:
- “Outside the U.S., we see similar stable trends.”
- “Within cross-border, volume growth was in line with Q4 2024 levels.”
- “We have seen some impacts from currency weakness and travel to specific countries, but the overall growth was above the pre-COVID trend.”
Travel and US-Canada travel was down
- “Within spend categories, there are some select areas such as in travel with airlines and lodging where growth has decelerated.”
- “We saw travel and entertainment growth decelerate, restaurant growth remained stable and retail and fuel growth improved.”
- “We did see a meaningful slowdown in the Canada to U.S. border.”
Uncertainty, yes but impacts unclear
- “There’s obviously more uncertainty today among consumers and businesses than there was several months ago. You see that in the consumer confidence metrics.”
- When asked about de minimis exemption tariffs related to China: “So far, we’re not seeing a material impact from tariffs related to China.”
There is an incredible divergence between consumer confidence and spending at the moment and that helps to explain why stock markets have rallied despite the trade war. That said, US equities were incredibly resilient just weeks before the March 2020 covid shutdowns even as the cases were spreading abroad.
The other take here could be that Americans spent money ahead of tariffs and Visa misinterpreted that as a sign of consumer strength.
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