What happens to the US economy when freight dries up

Here is a chart from Craig Fuller at FreightWaves — a freight data company. It shows last year’s trend in outbound freight (green) and overlays this year. It shows a 15% decline since February and ongoing deterioration, with the index 10% below a year ago.

“The freight data is warning about for the direction of the goods economy if things aren’t resolved soon,” Fuller writes.

The White House is watching these numbers and Bessent highlighted container ship orders in his recent comments. Generally, this data set leads hard economic data by 4-8 weeks.

Also note that the first tariffed cargoes arriving in the US from China are just landing now as the tariffs weren’t applied to freight on water.

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