A recent survey conducted by Abacus data shows two dominant factors driving voter decisions: reducing the cost of living (45%) and managing relations with Donald Trump (33%). Healthcare improvement and housing affordability follow as key concerns.
Both parties promise tax cuts. Carney pledged to trim 1 percentage point off the lowest income bracket tax, and has already removed Trudeau’s consumer carbon tax. The Liberals’ platform includes a widening of the fiscal deficit in 2025-26 to 1.96% of GDP from 1.6% in 2024-25. That comes, however, with a pledge to reduce it to 1.45% by 2029, and a split of government finances into an operating budget (to be balanced in three years) and a modestly in-deficit capital-spending budget.
The Conservatives have promised even larger cuts: 2.25pp off the lowest income bracket. They also propose a “Taxpayer Protection Act”, that would ban federal tax hikes without a referendum. Poilievre wants to scrap the carbon duties for corporations, trim home sales tax and deliver larger cuts to bureaucracy and de-regulation. The total budget impact of Conservative measures would amount to roughly C$75bn in tax cuts and C$34bn in spending over the next four years. Funding relies heavily on government savings: C$56bn. As a result, Conservative estimates for the deficit are roughly half of those of the Liberals for this fiscal year.
On the defence side, both parties are pledging to reach to NATO’s spending target of 2% by 2030. In terms of foreign policy, both leaders want to keep supporting Ukraine, but the Liberals have sounded more explicit in wishing to strengthen ties with European nations.
