President Donald Trump’s recent tariff posturing – the on-again, off-again game of economic brinkmanship – threw the global trading system into disarray. One day it’s tariffs on steel, the next it’s agricultural goods, then a sudden exemption or reversal for certain sectors. It’s chaotic, unpredictable, and economically damaging.
While stock market downturns grabbed the attention – and don’t forget that stock market volatility doesn’t just harm city traders, many of our pension funds are worse off this year – prices are expected to increase and low business confidence is expected to harm investment and employment.
Recent weeks have proven to be a wake-up call. A good time, perhaps, to pause and consider where Northern Ireland stands in this ever-shifting global trade landscape.
Because while the world debates protectionism, supply chains, and the next iteration of globalisation, Northern Ireland finds itself in a strangely enviable position.
Thanks to the post-Brexit arrangements, and in particular the Windsor Framework, we are tethered to two major economic blocs at once: the UK and the EU. We’re a small region with a big-ticket market advantage.
To quote Rishi Sunak: “that’s like the world’s most exciting economic zone”. However, exciting as it might be to our former prime minister, the benefits are not as simple to grasp as it sounds.
Depending on who you ask, this is either a golden opportunity or a headache. Some businesses are reaping the benefits of dual market access, maximising the upsides of an ability to trade with both the UK and EU without needing a 500-page customs dossier. Others, though, are stalled by uncertainty.
The question now isn’t whether this hybrid model can work – it already is, in parts – but whether Northern Ireland has the economic strategy, infrastructure, and confidence to play this trade environment to our advantage.
Under the Windsor Framework, Northern Ireland’s trade profile is taking on a distinct shape and the numbers tell a story of momentum. In 2023, Northern Ireland businesses reported total sales of £97.6 billion. Of that, £64.3 billion – around two-thirds – were within the region itself.
Sales to Great Britain accounted for £17.1 billion, and another £16.2 billion went to markets outside the UK. Importantly, that includes a £5.7 billion trade surplus – a not insignificant feat in today’s trade environment.
Cross-border trade with the Republic of Ireland is particularly striking. It hit £12.4 billion last year, a 26% jump from 2022. Northern Ireland’s exports southward totalled £8.7 billion, underscoring the reality that the all-island economy is not some abstract political notion but a living, breathing commercial fact.
Even trade in the other direction – from Great Britain into Northern Ireland – is growing fast. Imports reached £17.8 billion in 2023, another 26% increase.
We brought in £3.1 billion in mineral fuels, £2.5 billion in motor vehicles, and £1.3 billion in pharmaceutical products. And across the Atlantic, our exports to the United States – now more than ever a wild card in global trade – totalled £1.9 billion, making the US our largest market after Great Britain and Ireland.
In other words: trade is happening. In some cases, booming. But what’s next?
In a world where trade alliances are being redefined, where protectionism is no longer the exception but the strategy, and where economic certainty is practically extinct, the time to go bold is now.
That means stepping up export capacity, supporting more of our businesses to sell externally, and building deeper trade relationships in North America, Asia-Pacific, and emerging economies.
It also means investment in the unglamorous fundamentals: infrastructure, logistics, regulatory capability, and trade promotion. Strategy without scaffolding gets us nowhere.
We need an economic development system that isn’t just reacting but actively designing a Northern Ireland that can compete and win on a global stage.
So yes, while the world around us seems chaotic, we do have choices. Let’s take the unique trading position we find ourselves in and chase down the opportunities it can provide.
- Andrew Webb is chief economist at Grant Thornton NI
