For months the conventional political wisdom has been that a federal budget must be avoided — because Anthony Albanese’s government would have to hand down a deficit and that would serve as a reminder to the public that the country is in structural financial trouble.
But we are now in a new paradigm.
The federal budget is on the cusp of being delivered — and the government is holding the talking stick just when it needs it most.
We are in the Theatre of the Absurd — journalists will be locked up for hours on Tuesday to write countless stories about the government’s budget two minutes before an election. The budget is therefore almost entirely a manifesto for re-election.
This isn’t to suggest that there aren’t risks for the government in having to publish so much detail about the country’s fiscal position. But consider this: the country’s entire media establishment is about to be ensconced in writing and broadcasting information about the government’s budget and agenda at a time when attention is the commodity all politicians need more of.
With so many soft voters who haven’t really made their minds up, attention is of great value right now. Your attention is what they are seeking, and they will be reaching for it everywhere they possibly can in the next week.
Chris Hayes, the host of MSNBC’s “All In With Chris Hayes” in the US, has recently written a fascinating book about the corrosive consequences of the attention economy called “The Sirens’ Call: How Attention Became the World’s Most Endangered Resource”.
In it he makes the case that attention is the world’s most valuable resource. And the people who are winning right now (think Donald Trump) deeply understand its value and how to use it.
As the political fight for our attention is what matters most right now, is a budget really the way to do that? Well, no, not on its own. But in the fight for attention, the budget gives the government the best chance of slipping into your limited attention space.
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Government has the momentum
When Albanese appeared on influencer Abbie Chatfield’s podcast for a 90-minute chat, it wasn’t just for a soft interview — it was about getting into the social media feeds he would never usually appear in. Go ask any girl in their teens and twenties. Albanese appeared, for the first time ever, in some of their video reels. The power of that cannot be dismissed.
The past few weeks have been good for the government — the momentum is finally going their way. It has taken Labor some time to land any punches on Peter Dutton, who has proven to be an underestimated and formidable opponent, capable of switching the conversation into territory he prefers.
Dutton’s problem over the past week was by trying to switch the conversation to foreign criminals with dual citizenship, in the absence of context or a genuine crisis, his message fell flat.
The Albanese government has often been left flat-footed in the parliament. When Dutton has switched the conversation to national security in the past, it has made the government defensive and worried because they feel it’s traditionally uncomfortable territory for them.
But something weird is happening. Some senior Labor figures are actively hoping Dutton uses the week ahead to stray into these areas rather than fearing him as they have in the past. The reason? They are now building a case that Dutton is not ready to govern on the economy and has no cost-of-living solutions.
Their case is made best when the opposition leader strays away from the economy.
A senior Coalition source said Dutton must use the opposition leader’s budget-reply speech to launch a few new policies. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)
Budget reply a major test for Dutton
All budgets are about expectation management. This year, budget expectations have been set deliberately low — which again favours the government. Will there or won’t there be tax relief and who will offer it? Does either side have a plan to get the budget back to surplus?
This is as much a test for Dutton as it is for the government. The treasurer might have the talking stick in the next few days, but by Thursday it’s the opposition leader who will have it. How he uses it is perhaps his most important moment so far this year. Will he make an economic case, or rely on territory he has visited before?
A senior government source said while the government had lost almost every parliamentary week last year, they won the final two and the first two this year, and the week ahead was the most crucial because it was no longer a theoretical contest — time is up.
The government will heap pressure on Dutton, framing his Thursday budget reply as not just a speech but a career and election-defining moment. The level of difficulty for Dutton to stay on his preferred ground is huge.
A senior Coalition source said Dutton must use the opposition leader’s budget reply speech to launch a few new policies and muddy the waters for Labor leading up to the election.
There are other curve balls about to come the government’s way, including the Reserve Bank board meeting the following week, which is likely to be the first week of the election campaign.
While the one rate cut undoubtedly improved sentiment around the economy, which helped the government, the Reserve Bank could pour cold water on it this time around.
A senior Labor figure said questions remained about how a budget deficit would be received by voters. And if the Reserve Bank board meeting suggested no more rate cuts until September at the earliest, would that take wind out Albanese’s sails?
There’s a few speed bumps coming up for the government to navigate. How they frame them and capture voters’ attention will matter most.
Patricia Karvelas is presenter of ABC TV’s Q+A, host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News Channel, co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.
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